Taiwan: Are the US and China heading to war over the island?

Weeks after the US president warned China over Taiwan, Beijing has delivered its sternest rebuttal yet, saying it would "resolutely crush any attempt" at Taiwan's independence.

On Sunday, China's Defence Minister General Wei Fenghe essentially accused the US of supporting the island's independence, saying it was "violating its promise on Taiwan" and "interfering" in China's affairs.

"Let me make this clear: if anyone dares to secede Taiwan from China, we will not hesitate to fight. We will fight at all costs and we will fight to the very end. This is the only choice for China," he said at the Shangri-la Dialogue, an Asian security summit held in Singapore.

His comments follow US President Joe Biden's recent message to China that it was "flirting with danger" by flying its warplanes close to Taiwan. He vowed to protect the island militarily if it was attacked.

Taiwan, which considers itself a sovereign nation, has long been claimed by China. But Taiwan also counts the US as its biggest ally, and Washington has a law which requires it to help the island defend itself.

The escalation in rhetoric comes as China increasingly sends warplanes into Taiwan's air defence zone - flying their largest sortie of the year just last month - while the US has sent naval ships through Taiwan's waters.

So are the US and China moving towards a military conflict?

Minding the gap

One major fear is that war would be triggered if China invades Taiwan. Beijing has said in the past it could reclaim the island by force if necessary.

But most analysts say this is not likely - for now.

There has been debate over whether China has the military capability to succeed in an invasion, and Taiwan has been considerably ramping up its air and sea defences.

But many agree that Beijing recognises that such a move would be too costly and disastrous - not only for China, but also for the world.

"There's a lot of rhetoric, but the Chinese have to mind the gap very carefully if they want to launch an invasion of Taiwan, especially so close to the Ukraine crisis. The Chinese economy is far more interconnected with the global economy than Russia's is," says William Choong, senior fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies.

China's consistent position has been that it seeks "peaceful reunification" with Taiwan - something that Gen Wei reiterated on Sunday - and that it would only act if faced with a provocation.

One trigger would likely be Taiwan formally declaring independence. But this is something that its President Tsai Ing-wen has strenuously avoided, even as she insists they are already a sovereign state.

Most Taiwanese support this position, which is known as "maintaining the status quo", though increasingly a small number say they want to move